Odds Alpha #13
The good run of form continues! After 29 selections over the past 13 weeks, we have 13 winners and a placed shot at 40/1. Last week, we managed to slightly improve our overall strike rate to 45%. So, let’s analyse where the value is across sport and crypto this week and pick some winners.
Last week’s results
Although Chennai Super Kings were beaten in their game by our own 8/1 tournament pick, Rajasthan Royals, they still managed to scrape home in the most sixes bet that we were on here. In addition to this, Newcastle were comfortable victors against Everton, winning 4-1 away from home. They've done very well to galvanise their form since that heart wrenching defeat in the Carabao Cup Final vs. Man U. In hindsight, we probably could have gone in a bit more bullish with a handicap bet there. The only one to let us down last week was the Michael Van Gerwen most 180s bet. Against the prediction, MVG was beaten by the out of form Peter Wright and the pair both ended the game with two 180s a piece! A fingertip away from the full house and 3 wins from 3...
Crypto
Since last week, $ETH has been largely static before a small increase today to $1870. As s***coin season continues, $PEPE has maintained some incredible momentum, posting more volume than the more established but similarly meme based $DOGE. People I respect are starting to think that $PEPE will likely be here to stay and could see a serious rise if we were to return to a bull-run period. $BTC, meanwhile, had a 2% uptick today and sits at $28,600. The narrative for major cryptocurrencies is largely unchanged / slightly bearish here given that we saw some sustained strength throughout the past month. S***coins, however, will likely continue to perform out of syncronisation with the macro environment, as the whales play hot potato with the reduced overall liquidity in the current crypto industry. As I maintained from last week, be careful out there and try to look long term.
Premier League Football - Manchester City set for title
Both Man City and Liverpool have fixtures on Wednesday evening. City look ruthless at the moment and I don’t see much reason as to how they will drop a point from here on in. I would have played an Overs bet in the goals market in their game against Leeds at the weekend (Over 4 goals @ 2.32 to be precise), however, with a new manager installed, there is always that ‘bounce’ factor to contend with.
Tennis - Carlos Alcaraz looks dominant at Madrid Open
As the Madrid Open reaches its climax at the end of the week, a future star of the tennis world will be staking grand claims heading into the 2023 French Open. Other than a slight stumble in his first match, conceding a set to Emil Ruusuvuori, Carlos Alcaraz has been foot perfect so far this tournament. Given his opponent in the quarter finals has dropped sets in his two games thus far, I am confident that Alcaraz will be too strong. He is finding his top stride at just the right time.
The Tip: Carlos Alcaraz to WIN - 5.5 @ 2.06
Details: 3pm BST on 3rd May 2023
Bet here: link
Cricket
Given we managed to find some success in the sixes markets last week, I’ll follow up with another selection here. The Rajasthan Royals have been finding their flow in getting the ball over the ropes in the last couple of games. They managed to out-muscle the Titans in the return fixture and I think they’ll do the same here. With the likes of Jos Buttler, young gun Yashasvi Jaiswal and Shimron Hetmyer in their lineup, they are bound to be clearing the ropes more than their opposition, who have a weaker lineup.
The Tip: Rajasthan Royals most sixes @ 1.87
Details: 3pm BST on 5th May 2023
Bet here: link
Kentucky Derby
Although not available directly through housebets.io, the Kentucky Derby will be the focus of many horse racing fans and punters on Saturday night. The standout chance in this race has to be Forte and he’s priced up accordingly as a 3/1 favourite, unbeaten for previous winning trainer Todd Pletcher. However, with a field of this size he’ll have to have fair bit of luck in running and as a result, I’m going to take a chance on one at a bigger price. Although MAGE is still very inexperienced, after only a couple of starts, he will still have buckets of improvement left. He was only a length behind Forte last time yet is a considerably bigger price at 14/1 with many bookmakers. This would be a momentous first victory in the race for trainer Gustavo Delgado.
The Tip: Mage EW @ 14/1
Details: 11.57pm on 6th May 2023
As always, the very best of luck wherever you are betting this week. Long may this streak of good fortune continue!