Odds Alpha #15 - The good run continues after 2 winners from 2 selections last week
We return to the tipping sphere after another stellar performance in the blog last week, looking ahead at the end of the Premier League season, the second golf major of the year and the final of the European Rugby Champions Cup. Long may the good form continue! Over 30 bets in and we’re around a 50% strike rate with a winner at 14/1 and a placed shot at 40/1. We’re yielding profit.
Reviewing last week - 2 winners from 2 selections
Looking back at last week’s blog, we managed to be on the right side of results with our two selections. Firstly, in the Sale vs. Leicester Rugby Premiership Semi-Final, we were right in predicting a cagey, reasonably low scoring affair in which Sale ultimately came out on top. Leicester’s game plan largely revolved around the box kick, something which tends to yield a low scoring game. Sale will meet Saracens at Twickenham at the end of this month to decide the winner of this year’s competition. What a game that beckons to be.
Last night, we also had the second semi-final come to a conclusion and it ended up being a rather one sided affair, which we also got right. Man City were completely dominant against Madrid away from home, which was not reflected in that first leg 1-1 scoreline. However, they made it count back at the Etihad and dispatched the Spanish Champions League specialists 4-0. Maybe we could have gone even more punchy with our tip here, but -1.5 in a semi final seemed punchy enough at the time. A winner is a winner.
Since last week’s blog, Bitcoin has seen a 2% increase and sits at around the $27,500 mark. Ethereum, similarly, has remained largely constant at around the $1800 mark. There’s little to add here, aside from the fact that these prices have largely remained stable whilst US debt ceiling talks have been taking place. The nature of the two main currencies being less volatile than usual in these times is definitely a positive for the space as a whole, although makes talking about it rather less exciting!
PGA Championship - golf’s second major gets underway this week
Although not available currently to bet on Housebets.io, golf’s second major gets underway this week at Oak Hill Golf Club. We came so close to landing a 40/1 shot in the Masters this year with Brooks Koepka and I have a similarly strong selection here.
Jason Day has looked like the man of old this year. He played good golf at Augusta before a shocking +8 final round. He won last week on the PGA tour so comes into this event in flying form and, crucially, he was T8 when this event was last played at Oak Hill back in 2013. 30/1 underestimates his chance here. He is one of the best putters in the world and, under pressure, that can make a huge difference in these tournaments.
The Selection: Jason Day @ 30/1
Details: PGA Championship 2023, starts Thursday 18th May
Premier League getting closer to its conclusion
Manchester City play Chelsea this weekend on their highly likely route to another Premier League title. Chelsea bottled a 2-0 lead in their last game against Nottingham Forest, who are pushing hard to stay up. I genuinely think Frank Lampard is one of the worst managers out there and I expect this to get ugly, even if City may rest one or two with the Champions League final coming up.
They have been prolific in the second half all season, opening up teams and tearing them to shreds. As a result, a bet on the 2nd half handicap - 1.0 in City’s favour strikes me as a bit of value. This could get ugly for Chelsea. Man City are the best team in the world and Chelsea are gagging for an Ibiza sunlounger at this stage of the season.
The Selection: Man City second half - 1.0 @ 1.94
The Details: 21st May @ 4pm UK
Link: bet here
European Champions Cup Rugby Final
Leinster play La Rochelle in what feels like a prelude to the World Cup happening later this year. It’s Ireland vs. France. For me, although Leinster have been unbelievable in this competition this year and boast a great number of Ireland internationals amongst their ranks, La Rochelle seem a huge price at 3.84 overall. Their immense physicality will stand them in good stead here. A small bet on La Rochelle is advised as the value play.
The Selection: La Rochelle WIN @ 3.84
Details: 20th May @ 4.45pm
Link: bet here
Good luck whatever you are betting this week!